Preview: Sampdoria v Atalanta

Sampdoria v Atalanta
Sunday 31st January 2010
Luigi Ferraris Stadium, Genoa

Sampdoria (10th)

Sampdoria confounded the doom merchants (me included) last week with a surprise victory in Udine. Twice going behind, the blucerchiati showed immense character to win 3-2 without talisman Antonio Cassano. Is he injured or has he fallen out with Del Neri again? And will he get back into the team anyway now the team is coming off the back of a much needed morale boosting win?

Relegation threatened Atalanta at home looks, on paper anyway, a very winnable fixture for Samp. Sampdoria remain unbeaten at the Marassi, but they are nothing if not unpredictable. Those early season home wins have turned into disappointing draws against teams they should be beating. The home fans are unhappy, with violent protests at the clubs training ground and around the stadium in recent weeks. Samps away win at Udinese may have calmed things down a little, but the performance looked suspiciously like a team relieved to be playing away from the pressure of their own fans.

Doria have a number of attacking players rated as doubtful for the game, including Cassano, Semioli and Guberti. Gastaldello in defence is suspended. So check team news before the game.

Atalanta (19th)

Bergamo’s finest got off to a terrible start to the season, failing to win in their first seven games and they have since gone on to win only four times all season. Second from bottom, Atalanta are in a relegation dogfight. They have showed signs of life in their last three matches, getting a creditable win at home to Lazio and a point in Bologna. However last time out they slumped 2-0 to Genoa in the Marassi.

Atalanta have similarities to Fulham in England, they are traditionally very strong at home but don’t travel well. This season however the opposite is true. A reasonable away record contrasts with the leagues worst home record. This looks like a team who are most dangerous on the counterattack, and this may cause problems for Samps plodding defence.

Samp cannot underestimate the neroazzuri who have taken points from both Milan sides this season.

Legendary Atalanta forward Cristian Doni looks likely to miss out and will be replaced with Javier Chevanton.

Opposition dangerman

Javier Chevanton. With Doni out, much of Atalanta’s attacking ambitions rest on the Uruguayan strikers shoulders.

Head to head

Sampdoria have an excellent record in this fixture having won 5 of the last 6 league meetings in Genoa. Last seasons result was a 1-0 victory thanks to a Pazzini goal set up beautifully by Cassano.

The Odds

Wouldn’t it be just like Sampdoria to follow up a shock victory in Friuli with a loss at home to strugglers Atalanta. And the neroazzuri aren’t bad away from home. If Cassano is out that is a blow, but equally Doni is a huge miss for Atalanta.

The most likely result is a home win, but Sampdoria are odds on with the bookmakers and are not a team to be trusted as favourites…often succumbing to a draw when expected to win at home. However, I make a home win 55% likely which means that any odds over 4/6 look to be worth taking. With bookies pricing up Samp at 9/10 this looks a good price. But its a brave man who backs Samp at odds on in their current form.

The draw is a possibility here as Samp are now struggling to put teams away at home, and at 12/5 this may have a tiny shade of value about it but too risky for me.

Atalanta can pull off a shock here but I’d want to see prices closer to 6/1 for that.

You can also get Pazzini to score anytime at prices of around 11/8 or 5/1 to score first. The marksman is on penalties now, and is the main man with Cassano possibly out, so this looks a reasonable price for fun stakes.

Prediction

SAMPDORIA WIN

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MUG_OUFC