Preview: Sampdoria v Fiorentina

Sampdoria v Fiorentina
Saturday 13th February 2010
Luigi Ferraris Stadium, Genoa

Sampdoria (6th)
Last weeks predictable win at bottom side Siena stretched the blucerchiati’s winning sequence to three wins, and confirmed Samps return to form following a miserable Christmas period. Sampdoria’s improvement in fortunes since Antonio Cassano was dropped/injured is incredible, while Fantantonio’s replacement Pozzi has come in and scored two goals in three games. Del Neri is either a genius, or lucky.

However, Cassano’s absence might not be the reason behind Samps upturn in form. Two of their three wins have come against bottom three sides (Siena and Atalanta), teams that Samp would almost certainly have beaten anyway. And the third victory away at Udinese looks impressive, but Udinese were extremely poor and Samp a little fortunate on the day.

Also worth considering is that we are at the midpoint of the season now, playing the reverse fixtures of the seasons opening fixtures. These were the games that Samp were winning to go on their turbo-charged start to the campaign. Samp beat Udinese, Atalanta and Siena in a row at the beginning of the year, and have done the same in their last three games. The obvious conclusion is not that Samp are in brilliant form, but that they are once again playing the teams in the league that they can beat.

Following this sequence we see that Samp played in Florence in their fifth game of the season, with Samp coming off the back of four straight wins. Fiorentina won 2-0. Will this sequence repeat itself on Saturday when Fiorentina visit the Luigi Ferraris?

Team News: Cassano has a thigh strain and is rated as doubtful for the game. Pazzini is expected to overcome the minor injury sustained at Siena.

Fiorentina (11th)
Fiorentina are stumbling having failed to win any of their last four games. With Mutu banned and Gilardino firing blanks, what should be a formidable attacking team look a little short on confidence in attack. Fiorentina, and Montolivo in particular, dominated Roma last week in the Sunday night game. But they couldn’t convert possession into goals, and paid the price when Roma scored yet another late winner to take all three points.

Transfer rumours linking the Viola with Samp stars Cassano and Pazzini (a former Fiorentina player) may unsettle the Samp men, but it may also hit the confidence of the current Fiorentina players who play in these positions. There is no doubt that Cassano’s decision to reject Fiorentina and stay at the Marassi was a big boost for Samp, and a bitter blow for Fiorentina.

After Saturday nights televised game at the Marassi, Fiorentina travel to Munich for a huge Champions League game against German giants Bayern. Teams that are not champions league regulars and do not have Champions League resources, like Fiorentina, often struggle to both maintain league consistency and perform well in the Champions League. You so often see teams like this struggle in the games played before or after big Champions League encounters. The coach may select a strong side, but it is human nature that in the back of the player’s minds they are thinking about the big match coming up four days later.

Add into this the fact that Fiorentina’s away form is poor, with just three wins from 11 games this season.

Opposition dangerman
Alberto Gilardino. The poacher may have looked out of form against Roma last week but the former Piacenza, Verona, Parma and Milan can never be taken lightly. Gilardino was in scintillating form in Italys final world cup qualifying games to secure Italian qualification.

Head to head
Sampdoria traditionally have a good record in this fixture and have won three, drawn two and lost one of the last six games at the Marassi. However the most recent encounter, last season, saw a 1-0 win for Fiorentina.

Prediction
This looks a very closely matched encounter, and is one best avoided for serious gamblers. Fiorentina won this fixture last season, and the game in Florence earlier this season, and Samps early season sequence of results suggest this may be a game they will lose. Under normal circumstances, if pushed, it would be tempting to go for a Fiorentina win at prices that look big at 2/1.

But there is a bomb in the formbook here – Fiorentina’s upcoming Champions League game in Munich in midweek. Couple this with Fiorentina’s patchy away form, and (assuming Pazzini plays) I estimate that Sampdoria are 40% likely to win this with 30% chance of a draw and 30% chance of Fiorentina win. In view of the prices available at the bookmakers, 6/4 or over on the Sampdoria win might just have a tiny hint of value.

More risk averse punters may consider taking Sampdoria with level ball on the asian handicap. This means your stake is returned in the event of a draw. Sampdoria’s price here is 3/4.

SAMPDORIA TO WIN (just)

---

MUG_OUFC