Preview – Inter Milan v Sampdoria

Inter v Sampdoria
Saturday 20th February 2010
San Siro, Milan

Inter (1st)
Inter need little introduction, as the Champions juggernaut their way to another championship. But they have stalled a little in the last week. They were disappointing in a 0-0 draw in Naples last weekend (albeit a fixture they have usually struggled with in recent years), and weren’t overly convincing in the 1-1 draw at Parma before that. However back on home turf they are formidable and have only dropped four points from a possible 36 at the San Siro. They have won every home game since 8th November.

Inter have quality from front to back and are ruthlessly efficient under Mourinho, despite his increasingly bizarre attempts to get himself sacked. Milito has 14 goals in 21 games, while Balotelli, Etoo and new signing Pandev hasve also been scoring freely. Even the defence are dangerous, Maicon has a very impressive 3 goals and 6 assists from full back.

While the majority of the teams in Serie A struggle with finances, and the playing quality regresses accordingly, Inter continue to build and improve and widen the gap between themselves and the also rans.

Sampdoria (5th)
After a miserable December, Sampdoria have flown up the table in the last few weeks with four wins on the trot. Last weekends 2-0 win at home to Fiorentina was the most impressive of the lot. Fiorentina may have had their eye on the trip to Munich in midweek (and their performance in Munich would suggest they did), but they simply couldn’t live with Samp’s organisation and desire.

Whether its down to the dropping of Cassano or not, Samp have become much more cohesive in the last few weeks. New loan signings Storari and Guberti have fitted in well.

Samp beat Inter 1-0 in September, the result that really got people talking about their flying start to the season. But this was at home, where Samp are really strong this year. Samp may be in fine form and challenging for the Champions League spots, but on paper Inter away looks a severe test. Having been on the end of thrashings in Milan and Turin this season, it appears that Samp have a habit of collapsing in the big away games.

They will need all their new found confidence and willpower to avoid the same in the San Siro in Saturday nights live TV game.

Opposition dangerman
Take your pick really, but attacking midfielder Wesley Sneijder is good to watch and is the man who makes Inter tick offensively. The 25 year old Dutchman did not make the impact many expected following his big move from Ajax to Real Madrid. But after a cut price move to Milan, Inter already look a poorer side without him.

Head to head
Sampdoria got draws in this fixture in 2006 and 2003 but apart from that, unsurprisingly, Inter dominate and usually win this one.

Prediction
I have tried desperately to find reasons to back Samp here. A 5th placed team in such good form, who have beaten Inter earlier in the season, and who play an Inter side who come off the back of two draws, mean there are real chances of an upset. If you could get Samp for around 10/1 they would be a good longshot bet, despite their poor performance in the big away games.

Unfortunately what has happened here is that the prices have adjusted to reflect all of this, and Inter are available at a temptingly generous 3/5. I make them 66% likely to win which means they should be more like 1/2 shots and so Inter look to be the bet...but I wont be betting.

Inter should win this. And probably to nil.

MUG_OUFC

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