Preview: Siena v Sampdoria

Siena v Sampdoria
Sunday 7th February 2010
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Siena

Siena (15th)

Siena were unlucky in their defeat at in-form Roma last time out. They showed character to weather the Roma storm, and fought back from an early goal deficit to go into the final minutes at 1-1. It required a moment of magic from Fulham-bound Stefano Okaka to seal all three points for the giallorossi.

Siena are rock bottom of the league and it is not looking good for them. It is clear where Siena’s problems lie. They have managed to keep only two clean sheets since August. New boss Malesani arrived mid-December and had an immediate short term impact with two wins, but Siena regressed alarmingly quickly and have only managed one league point since their last win on 13th December.

On the positive side, for a bottom team, Siena seem to have no problems scoring goals. It is the other end of the pitch where the problems lie. Only two clean sheets in the league since August tells a damning story. Cribari comes back into defence for this game following suspension, which should bolster their defences. But the brazilian still looks short of the class act he was before sustaining a facial injury for Lazio in the Champions League.

Siena have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 5 at home this season. They are expected to miss Brandao, Rossettini , Parravinci (all injured), Rosi (suspended).

Sampdoria (7th)

Two wins from two games has rejuvenated Samp and they are right back in European contention. Their upturn in form has coincided with the dropping of Cassano. Del Neri can clearly point to these results as full vindication of his decision…but the fans and even his Chairman aren’t necessarily seeing it that way. Of course the two wins may just be because Samp were playing poor opposition.

Fantonio’s withdrawal was initially reported as a minor injury but it is becoming clear now that it was a decision by Del Neri, the reasons for which he is not disclosing. All was clearly not well as Cassano nearly departed for Fiorentina on deadline day. But he stayed, much to the relief of the Sampdoria fans. Now he has proved his commitment will Del Neri give him his place back? And if not, where does this leave Del Neri?

The problem Del Neri has given himself is that he will be very reluctant to change a winning team. This is a fragile team, and one wrong move could lead to another big slump. But there will be huge pressure on Del Neri to include Cassano. If he is brave and refuses, and results don’t go his way…well…rather him than me.

Samp looked OK in the 2-0 win against Atalanta. Guberti and Storari have made an impact following their loan recruitment, and, incredibly, Cassano hasn’t been hugely missed. Pazzini again got on the scoresheet amid the usual rumours linking him with a move. It was Juventus this week.

Sampdora go into this game with an unimpressive away record. Three wins and one draw from eleven games will need improving. But going away to the bottom side is an ideal opportunity to do that.

Padalino is suspended following his late sending off against Atalanta last time out.

Opposition dangerman

Massimo Maccarone needs no introduction to premier league fans, who will remember Middlesboro paying millions for him on the basis of one good Italy under-21 game against England. The bald headed poacher has scored 8 goals in a struggling team this year and will need to be watched.

Head to head

This fixture is evenly split over the last six meetings with two home wins, two draws and two away wins. Samp have the better of the more recent meetings, but last season this game was poor viewing and finished 0-0.

Prediction

The dismal run that preceded Samps last two wins is still fresh in Doria fans minds, and Siena did not disgrace themselves last time out in the Olimpico. Siena are better at home, and Samp are poor away. Samp are lurching from one drama to another off the pitch. So a shock home win or draw are real possibilities here, and should not be discounted.

However Sampdoria really should win this, and from a betting angle look the best bet at the prices. I make them around 45% likely to win which would make fair odds of around 5/4. However they are being priced up at more like 15/8, which looks suspiciously generous. Nevertheless, if Samp can win in the Friuli they can also win in Siena.

Sampdoria to make it three on the bounce.

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MUG_OUFC